Cocoa Jumps to a Five-Month High, Then Eases on Bigger Supply
Cocoa futures spiked to a five-month high near $5,250/tonne in late June 2026 before easing — up ~26% on the month but ~46% below a year earlier as supply recovers.
TL;DR — Cocoa futures spiked to a five-month high near $5,250 a tonne in late June 2026 before easing on improving supply — up about 26% on the month but still roughly 46% below a year earlier, as recovering West African output reshapes the chocolate market.
Chocolate’s key ingredient had a volatile week. In late June 2026, cocoa futures spiked to a five-month high before pulling back.
The move
New York cocoa futures hit a near five-month peak around $5,250 per tonne on June 25, 2026, then eased toward $4,900 by June 30 — up about 25.7% over the month but roughly 46.5% lower than a year earlier. On June 29, September ICE NY cocoa fell 128 points (−2.51%). Supply is recovering: Ivory Coast port arrivals reached about 1.95 million metric tons for 2025/26 (up ~18.9% year over year), and ICE cocoa inventories hit a 1.75-year high.
| Figure | |
|---|---|
| Late-June peak | ~$5,250/t |
| End-June | ~$4,900/t |
| Month change | ~+25.7% |
| Year-over-year | ~−46.5% |
The details
The spike was driven by near-term weather worries and short-covering, but bigger 2026/27 supply — Ivory Coast arrivals up ~19% and Nigerian May exports up 28% — is capping prices. (Sources: Ivory Coast government data, Bloomberg, StoneX.)
Why it matters
- Relief, with a lag. Spot prices are down sharply year over year, but retail chocolate remains elevated.
- Supply is healing. Recovering West African output is the dominant trend.
- Still volatile. Tight inventories keep cocoa sensitive to weather and short-covering.
FAQ
Why did cocoa prices spike in late June 2026?
Near-term weather worries in West Africa and short-covering pushed New York cocoa futures to a five-month high around $5,250 per tonne on June 25, 2026. Prices then eased toward $4,900 as improving supply reasserted itself.
Are cocoa prices still high compared with last year?
No. Despite the late-June spike, cocoa was roughly 46% lower than a year earlier, as recovering output from Ivory Coast (arrivals up ~19%) and Nigeria (May exports up 28%) rebuilt supply and lifted inventories to a 1.75-year high.
Sources
Image: “Roasted cocoa beans” by Mauro Cateb, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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